Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios
Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemi...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Artículo |
| Lenguaje: | inglés |
| Publicado: |
2013
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | http://eprints.uanl.mx/14739/1/480.pdf |
| _version_ | 1824414128310059008 |
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| author | Moo Llanes, David Ibarra Cerdeña, Carlos N. Rebollar Téllez, Eduardo Alfonso Ibáñez Bernal, Sergio González, Camila Ramsey, Janine M. |
| author_facet | Moo Llanes, David Ibarra Cerdeña, Carlos N. Rebollar Téllez, Eduardo Alfonso Ibáñez Bernal, Sergio González, Camila Ramsey, Janine M. |
| author_sort | Moo Llanes, David |
| collection | Repositorio Institucional |
| description | Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector’s ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys’ ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. |
| format | Article |
| id | eprints-14739 |
| institution | UANL |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| record_format | eprints |
| spelling | eprints-147392021-08-09T13:29:46Z http://eprints.uanl.mx/14739/ Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios Moo Llanes, David Ibarra Cerdeña, Carlos N. Rebollar Téllez, Eduardo Alfonso Ibáñez Bernal, Sergio González, Camila Ramsey, Janine M. QH Historia Natural, Biología Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector’s ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys’ ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. 2013 Article PeerReviewed text en cc_by_nc_nd http://eprints.uanl.mx/14739/1/480.pdf http://eprints.uanl.mx/14739/1.haspreviewThumbnailVersion/480.pdf Moo Llanes, David y Ibarra Cerdeña, Carlos N. y Rebollar Téllez, Eduardo Alfonso y Ibáñez Bernal, Sergio y González, Camila y Ramsey, Janine M. (2013) Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 7 (9). e2421. ISSN 1935-2735 http://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421 |
| spellingShingle | QH Historia Natural, Biología Moo Llanes, David Ibarra Cerdeña, Carlos N. Rebollar Téllez, Eduardo Alfonso Ibáñez Bernal, Sergio González, Camila Ramsey, Janine M. Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios |
| thumbnail | https://rediab.uanl.mx/themes/sandal5/images/online.png |
| title | Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full | Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_short | Current and Future Niche of North and Central American Sand Flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) in Climate Change Scenarios |
| title_sort | current and future niche of north and central american sand flies diptera psychodidae in climate change scenarios |
| topic | QH Historia Natural, Biología |
| url | http://eprints.uanl.mx/14739/1/480.pdf |
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